170% More Efficient in 3 Years: How Smarter Scenario Planning Transformed a Healthcare Insurer's Media Strategy

A top U.S. health insurer with $100M+ in annual media spend used Darwin's scenario planning to optimize across nine regions and three full-funnel KPIs.

Client: Top U.S. Healthcare Insurer

Top U.S. healthcare insurer scenario planning

Problem

The second largest health insurer in the U.S. managed $100M+ in annual media spend across nine regions and a mix of digital and traditional channels. With open enrollment (November–January) as the critical performance window, they needed to optimize investment across three full-funnel KPIs simultaneously: brand consideration, high-value web actions, and new policies and renewals. Existing tools fell short in accounting for full-funnel influence and impact.

Solution

The insurer deployed Marketing Evolution for advanced scenario planning — running 25–30 investment scenarios per month, both nationally and regionally, comparing them side-by-side for sensitivity, seasonality, and impact. Capabilities included:

  • Time-bound "what if" scenarios based on budget or conversion goals

  • Multi-KPI support with weighted priorities within a single plan

  • Granular, placement-level reallocation recommendations

  • Full-funnel KPI tracking across all three business objectives

Over three years, this enabled a $26M reallocation from traditional channels (TV, radio, outdoor) to digital (social video, display, native, search).

Insight

  • Timing matters as much as channel — brand-building in the first half of the year drove significant funnel impact in the lead-up to enrollment, while investments in H2 delivered better ROAS

  • Traditional channels were over-indexed — reallocation to digital unlocked substantial efficiency gains without sacrificing upper-funnel impact

  • Scenario planning at scale — modeling 25–30 scenarios monthly gave the team the confidence to make bold reallocation decisions with clear projected outcomes

Results

  • 170% improvement in media efficiency over 3 years

  • +35% CAGR in revenue produced per media dollar

  • +38% CAGR in media-driven member enrollment

  • +13% CAGR in media-driven high-value web actions

  • +8% CAGR in media-driven brand consideration